Insights

The lack of progress in negotiations to end the war in the Middle East and a return to military action led to a 21 percent rise in oil prices and a mixed month for stocks. Much of the weakness was concentrated in several high-flying artificial intelligence beneficiaries focused on semiconductors and memory. However, underlying trends in the market remained positive.

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Against a backdrop of easing geopolitical risks and strong earnings growth, markets rallied strongly across the board. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq turned in their strongest quarters since the second quarter of 2020. Throughout the quarter, the U.S. and Iran moved slowly toward the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to potentially end the war in the Middle East. As a result, the benchmark U.S. crude price declined more than 30 percent.

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Markets wrapped up May on a strong note, extending the rally that began after the March sell-off. While ongoing geopolitical risks continue to exist, hopes for a negotiated end to the Middle East conflict and strong corporate earnings buoyed investor sentiment.

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Markets rallied notably in April, largely offsetting the declines they experienced in March. Solid fundamentals and improving investor sentiment helped drive an impressive rebound for markets during the month despite continued geopolitical risks.

Markets dropped in March as rising concerns about the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East weighed on investors. Rising energy prices and interest rates during the month challenged bond returns, and both domestic and foreign stocks ended the quarter in the red.

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February was a challenging month for stocks, as concerns surrounding the disruptive nature of AI and shifting geopolitical risks weighed on investor sentiment. Domestic equities ended the month in the red; however, bonds and foreign stocks fared better.